India-US Relations in a Multipolar World Part 2

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The partnership between India and the USA is a cornerstone of contemporary geopolitics, underscored by robust economic cooperation, joint efforts in renewable energy, and shared endeavours in global health initiatives. As two vibrant democracies, their economic interdependence is salient, with the United States ranking among India's largest trading partners and hosting over four million members of the Indian diaspora. This partnership marks a notable shift in global trade patterns, showing shared interests and a dedication to mutual advancement.

Aligning Climate Goals with Energy Security

One key area of collaboration between the US and India is renewable energy. India's renewable energy sector has experienced rapid growth, with India emerging as one of the largest renewable energy markets globally. Most of the debates about whether India and the US should partner on climate action are no longer relevant because collaboration between these countries is inevitable and is already on fast track. India and the US, along with other countries across the globe need to figure out how to balance development needs with the move towards cleaner energy to combat climate change. The real question now is how to move forward and establish the terms of engagement.

India is committed to meeting its nationally determined climate goals, and is working to  align its commitments with international standards, like those set by the International Energy Agency (IEA). India applied for the IEA membership in 2023 and has been working with the agency on initiatives like achieving zero carbon footprints. The challenge lies in aligning India's climate goals with its need for energy security, which still requires relying on some fossil fuels. This might not align perfectly with the goals of other countries India partners with. So, while the partnership is essential, the focus now is on negotiating the terms of engagement. This involves discussions under initiatives like the Partnership 2030 outlook, which outlines what India and the US aim to achieve together. One of the key points to note is how climate change, sustainability, and the move towards a greener economy are becoming integral parts of national strategies worldwide. Every bilateral and multilateral partnership’s joint statement now includes a section on these aspects. Even in the case of infrastructure projects, concerns are being raised on the climate and environment impact of  China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) besides the mounting debt trap issues.. In response to the BRI, US backed initiatives  Build Back Better and the Blue Dot Network, which involve partnerships with countries like India, aim to provide cleaner and greener infrastructure alternatives. 

For countries like India, particularly emerging economies deeply focused on growth and development, energy security remains a major consideration, in addition to climate change goals. As discussions around partnerships evolve, even areas like defence cooperation are increasingly scrutinised for their environmental impact, emphasising the growing importance of cleaner, greener initiatives in all aspects of development. The overarching goal now is development with cleaner energy—a mantra echoing throughout international relations.

However, as evident from past negotiations, differences often arise concerning climate financing and technology sharing. Questions regarding how funds will be allocated and the terms of technology transfer remain central to these discussions. Additionally, the challenge extends to ensuring the necessary infrastructure is in place to support new technologies, such as electric vehicles. The clean energy cooperation between India and the US has undergone significant evolution over the years. Originating from the Bush administration's energy dialogue, it has since progressed through successive administrations, culminating in the current Biden administration's efforts to scale up the partnership. The journey traces back to landmark agreements like the Indo-US civil nuclear cooperation, showing the depth of cooperation within the clean energy dialogue.

Central to this partnership are two key pillars: research and innovation, and deployment. Research and innovation involve diverse stakeholders, including universities, research institutions, start-ups, and governments, collaborating to develop cutting-edge technologies. On the other hand, deployment focuses on translating these innovations into tangible solutions, requiring technological advances and the necessary infrastructure and policy support to facilitate widespread adoption.

As two significant global players—one boasting the largest economy and the other among the fastest growing—India and the US bear a responsibility to themselves and the global community. Beyond their bilateral cooperation, they can extend assistance to other nations, particularly those in the Global South, in transitioning towards greener economies and mitigating the effects of climate change. This involves initiatives such as technology sharing and providing financial support to facilitate the adoption of sustainable practices. By collaborating in this endeavour, India and the US can contribute to the greater good, transcending their interests to address pressing global challenges.

Addressing Global Health Challenges

The pandemic laid bare vulnerabilities in the healthcare systems of countries worldwide. This is particularly evident in the United States, where former President Donald Trump faced considerable criticism for mishandling the crisis. India, too, grappled with the challenges posed by successive waves of the pandemic and multiple variants of the virus. The pandemic served as a stark reminder for these major economies to reassess their healthcare strategies. India, given its large population, faced the monumental task of addressing healthcare crisis prevention and response needs. Global health encompasses a broad spectrum, including disease prevention and emergency response. During the pandemic, the focus shifted to emergency response, with an emphasis on vaccine development, testing, and deployment in real time. 

Countries had to decide whether to engage in cooperative mechanisms, leveraging each other's pharmaceutical capabilities for vaccine development, or succumb to nationalist tendencies, hindering global collaboration. Some sort of vaccine nationalism emerged raising questions about international solidarity during crises. The pandemic showed the necessity for countries to navigate competing national interests even in matters of public health. India and the US are contemplating strategies for preventing and combating future health crises, recognising the longstanding partnership they have maintained in global health, including. While the dynamism of this collaboration has increased over time, its roots extend back through various health crises, including HIV/AIDS and smallpox vaccination efforts. 

The pandemic also brought attention to broader issues, such as the healthcare workforce and longstanding intellectual property rights case in the pharmaceutical industry. The central role of healthcare workers, including nurses, emerged prominently during the crisis, highlighting the importance of sharing best practices in healthcare workforce management. Intellectual property rights have been a point of discussion, particularly concerning the production of generic drugs, in which India plays a pivotal role. Differences in patenting standards between India and the US have been a notable discussion surrounding pharmaceutical research and deployment. Responding to health crises requires a qualified medical workforce and a strong response infrastructure. The bilateral partnership between India and the US in addressing global health challenges involves a multi-stakeholder approach, engaging healthcare professionals, policymakers, and researchers from both countries. This collaborative effort aims to share expertise, foster innovation, and develop effective strategies to address global health challenges comprehensively. Efforts to address global health challenges extend beyond bilateral cooperation and encompass broader collaborations with other countries that need expertise in preventing and combating health crises. Sharing the lessons learned and best practices with other nations becomes important now more than ever for building resilient healthcare systems globally.

Indian Diaspora Abroad 

The US Ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti sharing a lighter moment, said, “The old joke was you could not become a CEO in the US if you are an Indian, now the joke is you cannot become a CEO in America if you are not Indian, whether it is Google, Microsoft or Starbucks, people have come and made a big difference."  Indian Americans are diverse, with differences in generation and political affiliation within the community. This community is not monolithic; opinions vary, and political leanings often diverge between the two major parties, Republicans and Democrats. Despite this, bipartisan support for the India-US partnership has remained robust. However, it is crucial to recognise the nuances within the diaspora, including generational gaps and diverse perspectives.

Indian Americans are often celebrated for their affluence, education, and law-abiding nature, contributing positively to the American landscape. Political activism within the Indian American community, while collective, has historical roots. For instance, Dilip Singh Saund, the first Congressman of non-Abrahamic faith in the US, played a pivotal role in the naturalisation of South Asians in America. In contemporary America, Indian Americans encompass various groups, including those born in the US, individuals who pursued studies in America and established successful careers, and those who migrated temporarily for work under different visa categories. The political base of the Indian American community remains relatively small compared to other ethnic groups like Hispanics. But, Indian Americans have made significant strides in American politics, with individuals like Nikki Haley, Bobby Jindal, and Vice President Kamala Harris holding prominent positions. Also, the community's fundraising prowess in both major political parties has elevated its profile in American politics. The political engagement of Indian Americans extends beyond individual success stories; it symbolises a collective shift towards active participation in shaping American politics. Their influence was notably observed during the India-US nuclear deal negotiations, where bipartisan support was crucial in the US Congress. As Indian Americans continue to navigate their roles in American society, efforts to strengthen India-US relations must be nuanced. While celebrating their achievements, it is essential not to place undue expectations on them regarding bilateral relations. They are citizens of America first, and while their support for the partnership is valued, expecting too much from the diaspora may not always be realistic or beneficial.

In Case of a Trump 2.0

The question of "What if Trump comes back?" is on the minds of major capitals around the world. They are contemplating the impact on bilateral and multilateral partnerships in the case of a Trump 2.0 administration. European and NATO allies of America are more anxious than countries in Asia due to his past unpredictable behaviour towards NATO and his questioning of the alliance's purpose and burden sharing mechanism. In contrast, while there is significant debate within India, especially in the strategic and policy-making communities, the focus is on the knowns and unknowns of a potential Trump return. There would undoubtedly be many uncertainties. If Biden comes back, it might feel like playing the second innings of a match already in progress. However, with Trump, his previous tenure followed by a four-year break, during which much has happened, including his refusal to accept the 2020 election results, adds complexity to the situation.

Many speculate that Trump’s return to the White House would be more revengeful, particularly towards American politicians, though not as much towards international figures. Observers are also curious about the potential team Trump might assemble if he were to return. It is worth recalling that the Indo-Pacific term became official during the Trump administration. The Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) was renamed during Trump's tenure. So, there are a lot of ‘knowns'; not everything is uncertain. Even if Trump returns for a second term, he is expected to maintain continuity in security matters. However, when it comes to trade partnerships, the same Trump can be much more transactional.

In case of a  Trump 2.0, it has to be seen whether he will completely scrap frameworks like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and come up with a new one, or he will continue with the existing framework albeit  changes. The structural features of the India-US economic partnership, trade partnership, and America's larger outlook and posture towards the Indo-Pacific are likely to continue in some form or another. A lot will depend not only on Trump as a personality but also on the kind of administrative team across different agencies that a Trump 2.0 will bring on board.

In looking forward, India and the USA need to continue building upon their partnership's strengths while addressing challenges and seizing opportunities for greater cooperation. This involves deepening collaboration in areas such as renewable energy, global health, and economic resilience, while also navigating potential shifts in leadership dynamics and policy priorities. Embracing innovation, fostering dialogue, and prioritising multilateral engagement will be crucial in advancing shared goals. By remaining agile, adaptive, and committed to mutual progress, India and the USA can further strengthen their partnership and contribute to a more stable, prosperous, and interconnected world.