Russia's 2024 Strategic Outlook

According to Giorgi Revishvili, a foreign and security policy analyst the strategic outlook for Russia in 2024 is outlined, focusing on the continuation and expansion of its military and political efforts in Ukraine. Russia aims to capture all of Donbas and solidify its presence in newly occupied territories, implementing measures to erase Ukrainian identity through forced "Russification," including educational indoctrination and cultural eradication. Moscow plans to maintain missile and drone strikes against Ukraine to demoralize civilians, disrupt military- industrial capabilities, and target vital supply lines.

A key strategic goal for Russia is regaining control over the western Black Sea, countering Ukrainian successes in the area and undermining Ukraine's grain exports to destabilize its economy. The political landscape in the U.S., particularly with MAGA Republicans politicizing Ukraine aid, is seen as an opportunity by the Kremlin to weaken Western support for Kyiv. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. commitments, especially with potential political shifts, is expected to play into Russia's hands.

Furthermore, Russia seeks to bolster its military capabilities through enhanced cooperation with Iran and North Korea, relying on these partnerships to offset sanctions and maintain a numerical superiority in artillery. The economic relationship with China is crucial, with significant trade growth supporting Russia's wartime economy, although China remains cautious about its involvement.

The outlook also highlights potential Russian interference in Moldova and Georgia, targeting political stability and elections. The concluding call to action raises the necessity for the West to formulate counter-strategies to Russia's ambitions in the coming year, underscoring the geopolitical challenges that lie ahead.