Democracy's Global Test!
The year 2024 marks a substantial moment in global democracy, with over half of the world's population poised to participate in an unprecedented number of elections—exceeding 80 local and national polls. This includes seven of the ten most populous countries, such as India, the United States, Indonesia, and Russia. Alongside them, nations ranging from Iran to Mexico, Pakistan, South Africa, and the United Kingdom, as well as all European Union member states, will hold pivotal elections.
However, amidst this surge in democratic participation, concerns about the health of global democracy persist. Some of the countries conducting elections are not democracies, and many others face severe threats to their democratic institutions, primarily from authoritarian populists. These challenges are evident in instances like former U.S. President Donald Trump, who currently leads in several polls against incumbent Joe Biden, despite his controversial past actions and impending legal battles.
Harvard University Professor Steven Levitsky, co-author of "How Democracies Die," offers a perspective that counters the narrative of democratic decline. He emphasizes that despite concerns about democratic erosion, global democracy remains relatively stable. Levitsky argues that the sheer number of voters and elections this year, while significant, doesn't necessarily reflect the state of democracy. He points out that economic prosperity over generations has fostered democratic resistance against authoritarianism.
Levitsky acknowledges that the resilience of democracy, especially in the United States, is uncertain. He notes the current cycle of crises in the U.S., suggesting that the country's democratic stability is in a precarious state. However, he also highlights that the number of democratic countries has only slightly decreased in recent decades, despite less favourable international conditions compared to the post-Soviet Union era of the 1990s.
The 1990s presented the most favourable conditions for democracy globally, with the liberal West dominating economically, militarily, and ideologically. This period saw a widespread adoption of multi-party elections as countries sought to align with the West. However, the subsequent rise of powers like Russia and China, coupled with various challenges faced by the West, such as the Great Recession, migration crises, and the Covid pandemic, have eroded these conditions.
Despite these adversities, Levitsky observes that democracy has fared relatively well globally. He notes that the decline in the number of democratic countries is modest compared to the drastic change in international conditions. Moreover, he points out that the perception of democratic decline is often exaggerated due to the disproportionate media focus on countries experiencing democratic backsliding.
Levitsky remains cautiously optimistic about the global state of democracy. He remarks that the number of democratic nations has only slightly decreased from the high 90s to the low 90s in the past 25 years, a far cry from the undemocratic world that prevailed until the mid- 1970s. He also highlights instances where countries that slid towards autocracy have reverted back to democracy within a decade, illustrating a dynamic and resilient global democratic landscape.
